Thousands vote early

Thousands have already cast their ballot for next Tuesday's city elections.

As of Tuesday, the Registrar of Voters had received 14,000 completed absentee ballots for this election.

"A good part of the election has already been completed with absentee ballots. The Brown and Jordan campaigns have actively requested them," said SF State professor Rich DeLeon, chair of the political science department and author of "Left Coast City" -- a look at the progressive politics of San Francisco from 1975 to 1991.

"Remember, (then-Mayor) Agnos won the election day vote," DeLeon said of the 1991 mayoral race. "But he got walloped by Jordan on the absentee vote."

Even though Agnos took 5,000 more precinct votes in the 1991 runoff election, Jordan won the mayor's race by taking more than 40,000 of the 66,000 absentee ballots cast, according to Registrar of Voter data.

By Tuesday, a record-setting 72,000 absentee ballots had been requested, according to the Registrar of Voters.

The San Francisco Chronicle reported Jordan's campaign had turned in more than 5,000 requests for absentee ballots as of Monday. Assemblyman Brown's forces returned 4,800, Republican businessman Ben Hom returned 3,700 and Roberta Achtenberg's campaign returned only 500 requests.

The deadline to request absentee ballots by mail was 5 p.m. Oct. 31, but voters may still get absentee ballots in person at the 633 Folsom St. offices of the Registrar of Voters up to the Nov. 7 election.

"We anticipate more than 80,000 absentee ballots by Tuesday," said David Tom, operations manager for the Registrar of Voters.

By comparison, Tom said only 52,000 absentee ballots were requested in the 1991 mayoral primary election.

Absentee votes tend to be more conservative and have a high rate of return, DeLeon said.

"Approximately 85 to 90 percent of absentee ballots requested are cast," Tom said.

That is a high percentage compared to precinct voting. DeLeon expects 60 percent of registered voters to cast a ballot next week.

Despite the importance of absentee ballots, many still expect the race to be close.

"I would be amazed if we didn't see a runoff," DeLeon said.

A Dec. 12 runoff election will be held if no single candidate takes more than 50 percent of the votes in the Nov. 7 ballot cast.

"Polls show 20 percent of the voters are still undecided," DeLeon said. "Brown and Jordan are close, and Achtenberg came up a bit after Alioto endorsed her. When you factor in the margin of error, it's gonna be a close race."

But KRON-TV political analyst Rollin Post said he does not think those undecided voters will vote for Jordan.

"If you've had a mayor for the last four years and you're undecided about who to vote for, I don't think you'll be voting for the incumbent," he said.

Post agrees that the withdrawal of Alioto boosted Achtenberg's chance for victory.

Achtenberg campaign staffers were pleased to have Alioto drop out of the race.

"(Alioto) came to our 'Rally in the (Noe) Valley' and wore a button supporting Roberta," said Susan Comfort, field organizer for Achtenberg.

"I think Supervisor Angela Alioto's endorsement helped Roberta with voters who want responsible government," said Darren Seaton, Achtenberg's press secretary.

Post said Achtenberg vaulted nearly five percentage points in the latest polls.

"Apparently she got almost all the people who said they were for Alioto," he said.

But preliminary polls mean less to campaign officials as the real thing -- election day -- approaches.

"We are holding nothing back for this last week, and we are confident of our chances at a runoff election," Seaton said.

However, DeLeon does not see Achtenberg in a runoff.

"I think the most likely scenario is Brown and Jordan in a runoff," said DeLeon.

Hadley Roff, director of SF State's Urban Institute, concurred with DeLeon but was not as confident in his predictions.

"None of us have a crystal ball. None of us really know," said Roff, who has served San Francisco's past four mayors and was most recently Jordan's chief of staff. "My guess is that Brown and Jordan will make the runoff, but (Achtenberg) could do it."

Many of the remaining undecided votes will go to the state assemblyman because "Brown beats Jordan easily in the runoff," DeLeon said, citing polls from the San Francisco Chronicle. He predicted people will vote for Brown because he has a better chance against Jordan, whereas Achtenberg may not beat the incumbent in a runoff.

DeLeon said Brown depends on his universal appeal, which reaches more than just the African American and liberal communities and will probably propel him to victory.

In Ingleside, a largely African American neighborhood and Brown stronghold, only 38 percent of registered voters cast ballots in the 1991 mayoral election. In the 1994 gubernatorial race, 39 percent of Ingleside residents voted, compared to 55 percent citywide.

Hoping to ensure a spot in a possible runoff, Achtenberg addressed students and faculty at SF State on Wednesday as part of the campaign's last efforts to reach voters.

"(The campus) is liberal, and is a good recruiting ground for volunteers," Roff said. "It would seem to be a very ripe field at harvest."

SF State has more than 26,000 students and most are over the age of 18 and are therefore potential voters.

Other 11th hour plans include a "Clean Slate" rally at 10 a.m. on Nov. 4 at the 2275 Market St. Achtenberg headquarters. The rally, sponsored by the San Francisco Green Party, the League of Conservation Voters and the Sierra Club, is an endorsement for Achtenberg by these progressive environmental groups.

[ Golden Gater Online November 2, 1995 ]

[ back to top ]